Juncker’s migration plan faces key test

The major sticking point for the European Council remains whether assistance to migrants is mandatory or voluntary.

The European Council is looking for a compromise Thursday between the Commission’s ambitions on migration and foot-dragging member countries.

The 28 political leaders of EU member states will meet for a two-day summit in Brussels, with most of the first day’s agenda dominated by the migration issue.

A draft of the conclusions has already been leaked, and the major sticking point in the debate remains whether assistance to migrants is mandatory or voluntary.

“It has been clear since April that mandatory quotas will never gather support from member states and the discussion has only confirmed that prediction,” said a senior EU official on the eve of the summit.

Leaders at the summit will decide whether to agree to the Commission’s goal of relocating 40,000 migrants over the next two years from Italy and Greece.

The leaders also will discuss setting up “hotspots” in Italy and Greece “to ensure the swift identification, registration and fingerprinting of migrants,” according to the draft.

The document also indicates leaders will agree to more financial support for the two countries, as well as readmission and reintegration policies for immigrants who don’t qualify for protection.

“What is disappointing is that it is just a one-shot policy whereas we would have needed a structural solution,” said Mario Morcone, head of the migration department at the Italian Ministry of Interior.

When the Commission presented its agenda in May, it made clear the “EU needs a permanent system for sharing the responsibility for large numbers of refugees and asylum seekers among member states,” adding that it will propose legislation by the end of the year.

“The final arrangements will be discussed until the last minute,” said an EU diplomat.

In contrast to the European Council, where EU leaders adopt broad political guidelines with unanimity, the actual legal and technical decision on the migration agenda will be made in the Council of the European Union, where the ministers from member countries meet depending on the topic — in this case the Interior ministers — to rule by qualified majority.

This means that only 55 percent of the EU members representing at least 65 percent of the region’s population needs to endorse the migration plan. So it can pass even over opposition from some countries.

Under existing treaties, the U.K., Ireland and Denmark are not obliged to participate in the migration plan. And at least two or three Eastern European countries are still strongly opposed to any mandatory decision, says an EU diplomat from Eastern Europe.

A compromise between opponents and supporters of a mandatory scheme, like Italy and Germany, could be found, according to an EU official. Countries can agree to a mandatory relocation of the 40,000, as suggested by the European Commission in its Migration Agenda presented over a month ago, but then they will decide on a voluntary basis how many asylum seekers they want to take in.

Another draft of the Council conclusions circulated just before the start of the summit and seen by POLITICO confirms the figure of 40,000 asylum seekers and emphasizes that “all member states will participate in” the relocation.

“In this way everyone wins,” the official said. “The Commission has its mandatory mechanism, and member countries can say that they are acting voluntarily.”

In addition to relocating 40,000 asylum seekers, the EU leaders will be asked to agree on “the principle that all member states will participate in the resettling of 20,000 displaced persons in clear need of international protection,” according to the draft conclusions.

Relocation involves refugees already within the European Union while resettlement targets asylum seekers outside the bloc.

While Europe has been arguing over mandatory quotas, numbers released last week from Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU, show that asylum seekers’ routes are changing and that Hungary, not Italy, is increasingly exposed.

The number of first-time asylum applicants jumped 17 percent in Hungary in the first quarter of this year from the year-end quarter of 2014, while Italy saw a 28 percent drop. (Greece still saw a 23 percent increase over the same period.)

“The route for Hungary is well established,” explains Judith Sunderland, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. “What we are seeing is an increase of refugees crossing the Mediterranean to reach Greece. Since they do not want to remain there, the majority of them cross Serbia to reach Hungary. This route has always been very important but in the last years has been booming.”

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The latest draft of the Council conclusion now includes a line to address the Hungarian situation. It states that “a high-level conference will be organized to address the challenges of the Western Balkans route,” referring to the path that takes refugees from Greece to Hungary passing through Serbia.

But the urgency of the migration problem is also highlighted by the situation in Calais, France. On Tuesday, French transport strikes backed up traffic for miles leading into the Channel Tunnel that connects France and Britain, stirring the area’s ongoing migrant crisis.

Hundreds of migrants, hoping to cross the Channel, attempted to break into stationary cars and lorries as they waited on gridlocked motorways. Striking workers burned tires blocking also train tracks. Both Eurostar and Eurotunnel suspended services because of the disruption, leaving passengers stranded.

This article was updated at 11:42 am on June 25 to include additional information from a new set of draft summit conclusions.